March Madness Tips for People Who Haven’t Been Paying Attention

Every year it’s the same thing. You haven’t watched a single college basketball game since last March, the bracket invite lands in your inbox, and suddenly you’re Googling “who is good at basketball this year” the night before picks are due.

Been there. I put this together for the pool I’m in, but it’s useful for anyone who wants to fill out a bracket without feeling completely lost.

Here’s what you need to know before Selection Sunday on March 15.

One personal note before we get going: my team is Michigan. Every year, I have to decide whether to pick with my head or my heart. I do not recommend having a favourite team when filling out a bracket. It’s genuinely stressful.

The 10 Teams to Know

These are the teams worth paying attention to. If a name shows up in your bracket and you have no idea who they are, start here.

1. Duke (ACC). One of the top teams in the country and the likely No. 1 overall seed. Built around Cameron Boozer, a freshman forward who plays like a ten-year veteran. One catch: starting point guard Caleb Foster broke his foot and is out for the tournament. Starting centre Patrick Ngongba has a foot issue too but is expected back. Still the favourite for most brackets, but less of a sure thing than they were two weeks ago.
   
2. Michigan (Big Ten). A physical, defensive-minded group that looks like a classic Big Ten bully. If you want a 1-seed that can grind out ugly wins, this is your pick. I may or may not be objective here. One note: backup guard LJ Cason tore his ACL in late February and is done for the season, so they head into March slightly thinner than they were a week ago.
   
3. Arizona (Big 12). Fast, high-powered offence that can run teams off the floor. Genuine title contender; the concern is whether they can win when the game slows down and turns into a half-court slog.
   
4. Florida (SEC). Defending national champions from 2025. One of the best frontcourts in the country and a defence that wears teams out over 40 minutes. Dangerous pick to repeat, but history says going back-to-back is rare.
   
5. Houston (Big 12). Elite defence is their identity, again. Kelvin Sampson’s teams play hard, ugly, and efficient, making Houston a safe deep pick if you trust process over flash.
   
6. Iowa State (Big 12). One of the most balanced teams in the country, with a star who can take over when they need a bucket. They do a bit of everything well, which usually travels in March.
   
7. Michigan State (Big Ten). Tom Izzo in March. That’s the whole argument. Multiple Final Fours since 2000, elite guard play, strong defence. Never count them out.
   
8. Purdue (Big Ten). Perennial contender with one of the best point guards in the country running the show. They have all the pieces and a recent history of breaking hearts in March; you have to decide how much you trust them.
   
9. Gonzaga (WCC). The analytics crowd usually loves them even more than the human voters. They cruise through a weaker conference most years, and every March the debate restarts: can they do it against the big boys? Pick a side.
   
10. Illinois (Big Ten). One of this season’s big surprises. Powered by a breakout freshman guard who exploded for a massive road scoring game in January and hasn’t really cooled off. The sleeper Final Four pick if you want to look smart.

The 10 Players to Know

You don’t need to know every roster. You just need the names that will decide games. These are them.

1. Cameron Boozer, Duke, F. A do-everything freshman forward and the son of former NBA All-Star Carlos Boozer. Projected lottery pick who scores, rebounds, and creates for others. He’s the face of a team you’ll see deep in most brackets.
   
2. AJ Dybantsa, BYU, F. One of the most gifted scorers in the country and a future lottery pick. BYU will likely be a middle seed, but he has the kind of game where one hot weekend can drag them somewhere nobody expected.
   
3. Darryn Peterson, Kansas, G. A highly touted guard who entered the year as the projected No. 1 draft pick and has missed 11 of 27 games with hamstring, ankle, and cramping issues. When he plays he’s electric. When he doesn’t, Kansas is a completely different team. Nobody knows which version shows up in March, including his coach.
   
4. Joshua Jefferson, Iowa State, F. A stat-sheet stuffer who scores, rebounds, and facilitates at a high level for a contender. He’s the kind of versatile forward who can quietly swing a game with a near triple-double line.
   
5. Jeremy Fears Jr., Michigan State, G. Tough, smart point guard who lives in big moments. Among the nation’s assist leaders and the engine of Michigan State’s late-game execution.
   
6. Braden Smith, Purdue, G. One of the best floor generals in college basketball. Piles up assists, runs the entire offence, and will be at the centre of everything if Purdue finally makes a deep run.
   
7. Keaton Wagler, Illinois, G. A freshman guard who came into the year off the national radar and exploded with a massive road scoring outburst in January. Now he’s one of the most dangerous shot-makers in the field and a true wild card.
   
8. Rueben Chinyelu, Florida, C. An elite rebounder and rim protector who owns the glass. The kind of centre who may not dominate highlights, but completely controls games for the defending champs.
   
9. Graham Ike, Gonzaga, F. A veteran big man with real scoring touch and physicality inside. If Gonzaga makes another deep run, it’s probably because Ike is carving people up on the block.
   
10. Kingston Flemings, Houston, G. Freshman guard who already has a signature huge-scoring night on his résumé. Brings a jolt of offence to a defence-first program that knows how to win in March.

5 Teams That Could Blow Up Your Bracket

This is the fun part. March Madness isn’t just about the favourites. Every year, a handful of teams nobody expected win two or three games and wreck half the brackets in every pool. Here are the ones to watch in 2026.

1. Miami (Ohio) (MAC, projected mid-high seed). They have not lost all season, and the efficiency numbers say there’s substance behind the record. The question is whether they’ve actually been tested. Picking them for a win or two is smart. Sending them to the Final Four is a leap of faith.
   
2. Utah State (Mountain West, projected 8-11 seed). Legitimate mid-major with real scoring punch. If they land as an 8 or 9, they can pick off a vulnerable 1-seed in round two and blow up an entire region.
   
3. South Florida (American Athletic, projected 11-12 seed). Strong analytically, from a tough conference, and very balanced. They fit the classic 12-seed profile that knocks out a 5-seed and suddenly shows up on everyone’s Cinderella line.
   
4. Akron (MAC, projected 11-13 seed). Veteran, guard-heavy team that doesn’t panic late in tight games. Exactly the kind of 12 or 13-seed that survives a one-possession first round and ruins someone’s Thursday.
   
5. Saint Louis (Atlantic 10, projected 10-12 seed). Balanced scoring, capable of hanging with high-major programs. The smart pick your friend who actually watches college hoops all year will quietly feel smug about.

9 Things to Know Before You Pick

These aren’t opinions. They’re patterns from about 40 years of tournament history. Use them.

1. Your champion is almost certainly a 1, 2, or 3 seed. Since the field expanded in 1985, the overwhelming majority of national champions have been seeded 1 through 3. Pick your title team from that band, and you’re playing the odds correctly.
   
2. Never pick a 16-seed over a 1. It has happened only twice ever, out of well over a hundred tries. We’re talking roughly a one-percent upset rate. Just don’t do it.
   
3. The 12-over-5 upset is real. Historically, 12-seeds beat 5-seeds roughly one-third of the time, and 13-seeds beat 4-seeds around one-fifth of the time. This is where the real chaos lives. Pick at least one upset in that range.
   
4. The 10 and 11 seeds are basically coin flips. 10- and 11-seeds win in the mid-30% range. Don’t be scared to go with the lower seed in those matchups, especially if they’re hot or come from a strong league.
   
5. Good defence wins championships. In the modern analytics era, almost every national champion has finished with at least a top-40-50 defence nationally. Teams that can’t guard people don’t win the title, no matter how fun their offence is.
   
6. Champions share the ball. Title teams almost never ride just one superstar. They typically have multiple double-digit scorers and several reliable three-point shooters; one-man shows rarely go all the way.
   
7. This freshman class is loaded. Boozer, Dybantsa, Peterson, Wagler, and Flemings are all projected lottery picks. Freshmen can win or lose a game entirely by themselves. Pick their teams carefully.
   
8. Florida won it all last year. Defending champions almost never repeat in the modern era. Keep that in mind before you automatically pencil Florida deep just because they cashed everyone’s bracket in 2025.
   
9. All four 1-seeds almost never make the Final Four. It’s only happened once, in 2008. At least one top seed always goes down earlier than expected. Plan for it.

The bracket isn’t real until Selection Sunday, March 15. Conference tournaments are happening right now. Seeds will shift, bubble teams will jump in or fall out, and a key player could get hurt. Don’t lock anything in before that night.

Selection Sunday is March 15. Brackets open right after. Good luck out there.