As the new NBA season approaches, it’s time to dive into the NBA win total predictions and make some bold picks. Below is a list of all NBA teams with their projected win totals for the 2024-25 season. I’ll share my thoughts on whether each team will exceed (Over) or fall short (Under) of these expectations. Since you are already here, you might as well give it a read.
Eastern Conference
Atlanta Hawks: 36.5 wins
Prediction: Over
Reasoning: I think this season is going to be backward. So that means teams like Atlanta are going to be better. Despite coming off a disappointing season, the Hawks have historically performed better when Trae Young is healthy. With adjustments made in their roster and strategy, including a focus on surrounding Young with shooters, they have a good chance of returning to a winning formula similar to their successful 2021 season.
Boston Celtics: 58.5 wins
Prediction: Under
Reasoning: I can’t see the Celtics putting a lot of stock in the regular season. They will still be the best team, but I think 60 wins is not in their future. Kristaps Porzingis is set to miss the start of the season, which could impact the team’s performance early on. Injuries to key players like Porzingis can disrupt team chemistry and affect win totals, especially if other players have to adjust their roles significantly.
Brooklyn Nets: 19.5 wins
Prediction: Under
Reasoning: I think the Nets are going to be as bad as Ben Simmons’s jumper. They have zero direction and are looking to the future. They will be a team that is going to be “quiet quitting” for sure. Possibly flirting with the worst record in the NBA.
Charlotte Hornets: 30.5 wins
Prediction: Under
Reasoning: LaMelo Ball’s health is crucial for the Hornets’ success. Historically, the team has performed significantly better when he is on the court. However, Ball has struggled with injuries throughout his career, playing only 27 games last season. If he cannot stay healthy, it will be challenging for the Hornets to reach 30 wins.
Chicago Bulls: 27.5 wins
Prediction: Under
Reasoning: There is ongoing speculation about trading Zach LaVine and possibly Nikola Vucevic. Such moves would further deplete the roster of experienced players, making it difficult to achieve a high win total. Plus, the Bulls are just a poorly run organization that can’t seem to get out of their own way.
Cleveland Cavaliers: 48.5 wins
Prediction: Over
Reasoning: Cleveland boasts one of the league’s best starting lineups with Mitchell, Garland, Mobley, Allen, and Max Strus. This group offers a potent combination of offensive firepower and defensive strength. The backcourt duo of Mitchell and Garland is particularly dynamic, capable of scoring and facilitating at a high level. I also think a coaching change is going to do wonders for the Cavs.
Detroit Pistons: 25.5 wins
Prediction: Over
Reasoning: I think this is the year the Pistons start to trend up. They have made strategic offseason moves to improve their roster. They added veterans like Tobias Harris, Malik Beasley, and Tim Hardaway Jr., who bring shooting and experience to a young team. These additions should help improve their offensive efficiency and provide leadership. Plus, Monty is gone. That was a disaster.
Indiana Pacers: 46.5 wins
Prediction: Over
Reasoning: I am super high on the Pacers. I think they can make a lot of noise. That’s why this is an easy Over. The continued development of young players such as Bennedict Mathurin and Andrew Nembhard is expected to contribute positively to the team’s success. These players have shown potential and are likely to take on larger roles this season. A full year of Siakim will be awesome as well.
Miami Heat: 44.5 wins
Prediction: Over
Reasoning: It’s hard to bet against the Miami Heat. Erik Spoelstra is one of the top coaches in the NBA, known for maximizing his roster’s potential and crafting effective game plans. His experience and strategic acumen are significant assets that can help the Heat navigate through challenges and secure wins. I think Jimmy Buckets is going to be focused as well.
Milwaukee Bucks: 50.5 wins
Prediction: Over
Reasoning: Despite recent playoff disappointments, the Bucks have consistently been a strong regular-season team, winning at least 51 games in four of the last six seasons. This track record suggests they are capable of reaching or exceeding 50.5 wins again. Plus I think former Raptors Gary Trent Jr. and Delon Wright are going to play a key role this season.
New York Knicks: 54.5 wins
Prediction: Under
Reasoning: As high as the hype is for the Knicks, I think they are going to end up being not as good as we think, at least for the regular season. Health is a critical factor for the Knicks. Key players like Towns and OG Anunoby have had injury issues in the past, missing a substantial number of games. Maintaining the health of these players is crucial for reaching a high win total, but it remains a concern.
Orlando Magic: 47.5 wins
Prediction: Over
Reasoning: I think the Magic are going to be bitch to play against. I also see this year being the year they finally take a leap. The addition of Kentavious Caldwell-Pope provides veteran leadership and championship experience. His shooting and defensive capabilities complement the young roster and add depth to their backcourt.
Philadelphia 76ers: 52.5 wins
Prediction: Under
Reasoning: I really want to say over because on paper they should be stacked. But sadly that paper is about as thin as ever. I think this team is going to have a down year and that is because of injuries. Embiid is already talking about not playing in back-to-back games and Paul George just had a pretty scary knee injury. Unless Maxey goes All-NBA, this team will be in the high 40-win range.
Toronto Raptors: 29.5 wins
Prediction: Over
Reasoning: With another offseason under their belts, the young players are expected to improve further. RJ Barrett, for example, had a strong showing in international play over the summer, which could translate into increased confidence and performance in the NBA season. Plus the Raptors I think will surprise some teams this season. I can’t imagine Toronto not hitting 30 wins.
Washington Wizards: 20.5 wins
Prediction: Under
Reasoning: While Jordan Poole and Kyle Kuzma provide some offensive capabilities, neither has proven to be a consistent leading star capable of carrying a team to a significant number of wins. Poole, in particular, has struggled to make the leap expected of him since joining the Wizards.
Western Conference
Dallas Mavericks: 49.5 wins
Prediction: Over
Reasoning: Following their unexpected run to the NBA Finals last season, where they exceeded expectations as a fifth seed, the Mavericks have momentum on their side. They finished with a 50-win season last year and have made improvements that suggest they can build on that success. I also think this is the year Luka gets serious about being the MVP.
Denver Nuggets: 51.5 wins
Prediction: Over
Reasoning: The Nuggets have consistently finished with a winning percentage above .560 since 2018, including a franchise-best 57-win season in 2023-24. This track record suggests they are capable of reaching or exceeding 50.5 wins again.
Golden State Warriors: 44.5 wins
Prediction: Over
Reasoning: Despite missing the playoffs last season with a 46-36 record, the Warriors have consistently been competitive in recent years. They have not finished below this win total in an 82-game season since 2011-12, indicating their ability to perform well over a full season.
Houston Rockets: 43.5 wins
Prediction: Under
Reasoning: This one was a tough call. The Rockets are on the rise and everything says they should make another jump. But I think they are really looking towards the future and not this year. What I mean is big fish hunting in a deal. After improving from 22 to 41 wins last season, expectations are higher for the Rockets. Meeting these expectations while still focusing on development may prove challenging.
Los Angeles Clippers: 39.5 wins
Prediction: Under
Reasoning: This might be the easiest bet on the board. The Clippers have an aging roster with players like James Harden, who, despite being capable of carrying an offense on occasion, is not as consistent as he once was. His declining shooting efficiency and reliance on free throws could limit his effectiveness. I would be very shocked if the Clippers break 35 wins.
Los Angeles Lakers: 43.5 wins
Prediction: Under
Reasoning: The Lakers’ depth is questionable, particularly if injuries strike. While they have some promising young players like Austin Reaves and Max Christie, relying on them to fill significant roles may not be enough to cover the potential absences of their star players. I’m looking at you AD.
Memphis Grizzlies: 47.5 wins
Prediction: Over
Reasoning: After a disappointing 27-win season last year, following two consecutive seasons with over 50 wins, the Grizzlies are motivated to return to playoff contention. This drive can translate into strong regular-season performances as they aim to secure a higher playoff seed. As long as Morant doesn’t get hurt, the Grizzlies should be flirting with a 50-win season.
Minnesota Timberwolves: 52.5 wins
Prediction: Under
Reasoning: While Anthony Edwards is emerging as a superstar, much of the team’s success will depend on his continued development and ability to lead the team offensively. If he faces any setbacks or struggles, it could hinder the Timberwolves’ ability to reach their win total. I also predict some tension between ANT man and Randle. Can they sort it all out? We shall see.
New Orleans Pelicans: 46.5 wins
Prediction: Over
Reasoning: Up top, I mentioned that I can see the season being a little backward. That’s why I think the Pels will finally have a strong regular season. The Pelicans have a well-rounded roster with standout contributors like Trey Murphy III, Herb Jones, and Jose Alvarado. This depth allows them to compete effectively against any opponent and manage injuries better than in previous seasons.
Oklahoma City Thunder: 56.5 wins
Prediction: Over
Reasoning: With high expectations to contend for a championship, the Thunder are motivated to perform well in the regular season to secure a favorable playoff position. This drive can translate into consistent performances and victories.
Phoenix Suns: 47.5 wins
Prediction: Over
Reasoning: The acquisition of Tyus Jones addresses a critical need for a true point guard. Jones is known for his exceptional assist-to-turnover ratio and ability to manage the offense efficiently. His presence should help optimize the scoring opportunities for Durant, Booker, and Beal, potentially leading to more wins. Amazing that all of last season everyone was saying – get a point guard. They finally did.
Portland Trail Blazers: 22.5 wins
Prediction: Under
Reasoning: The Blazers will be in the running for the worst team in the NBA. The team is centered around young players like Scoot Henderson and Shaedon Sharpe. While they have potential, their inexperience can lead to inconsistency and growing pains throughout the season, impacting the team’s ability to secure wins.
Sacramento Kings: 46.5 wins
Prediction: Over
Reasoning: The Kings have surpassed their projected win total in four of the last five seasons, demonstrating their ability to outperform expectations consistently. This trend suggests they are capable of achieving more than what oddsmakers project.
San Antonio Spurs: 36.5 wins
Prediction: Over
Reasoning: The Spurs have added experienced players like Chris Paul and Harrison Barnes. Paul’s leadership and playmaking skills, combined with Barnes’ versatility, provide the team with veteran presence and stability, which can translate into more wins.
Utah Jazz: 29.5 wins
Prediction: Under
Reasoning: Without a proven star to lead the team, the Jazz may struggle to compete against more experienced and talented rosters. This lack of a go-to player in crucial moments could impact their ability to secure wins.
What do you think? Do you agree or disagree? Feel free to share your NBA win total predictions in the comments.
Also, if you want to hear the experts go through this process, I highly suggest checking out The Bill Simmon’s Podcast and their annual Over/Under pod.
